Missouri vs. Alabama Odds, Picks, Predictions

Both Missouri and Alabama are fast, high-powered offenses, and while it may not have been as apparent in their regular-season meeting, our college basketball picks see the scoring going higher on Saturday.

Last updated: March 11, 2023 at 8:19 a.m. ET
Reading time: 4 min

In the first semifinal game of the 2023 SEC Tournament in Nashville, TN, the No. 4 seed Missouri Tigers will face the No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide at Bridgestone Arena on Saturday afternoon.

Missouri proved a lot of people wrong by scoring another big game against Tennessee on Friday, pulling out an upset 79-71 victory. Alabama dominated in its first SEC Tournament game, defeating Mississippi State 72-49. The Crimson Tide are likely locked into the top seed in the NCAA Tournament.

Can Missouri continue its offense and pull off a major upset? Check out our college basketball picks and predictions for Missouri vs. Alabama on Saturday, March 11 to find out.

Missouri vs Alabama best odds

Missouri vs. Alabama picks and predictions

In the regular season game, Missouri was held to just 64 points, 16 points below their season average. Both teams had terrible shooting performances, as Missouri shot 32.9% from the field and a terrible 3/28 from downtown. Alabama shot 36.8% from the field and 10/35 from deep.

That was far from typical for either program. Mizzou is shooting 47.7% from the field (30th) and 36.2% from three (71st). In a game against Tennessee, one of the best defenses in the country, he shot 52.6% from the field and 38.5% from downtown.

Alabama is shooting 44.8% from the field (177th) and 33.9% from three (202nd). Against Mississippi State, another great defense, the Tide shot 40.3% from the field and 35.1% from deep. Both attacks are much better than what you saw in their first match.

KenPom he rates both offenses highly. Alabama ranks 20th in adjusted offensive efficiency and second in adjusted pace. Meanwhile, Missouri ranks ninth in adjusted offensive efficiency and 83rd in adjusted pace.

The Crimson Tide is first in the nation in possessions per game at 77.0, while the Tigers are 69th at 72.3. Alabama has a strong defense, but still allows a ton of free throws, ranking 336th in the country in free throw attempts allowed per game.

This game is going to be a lot of fun to watch. Missouri and Alabama will put on a show for the Nashville crowd with quick possessions, plenty of 3-pointers and plenty of fast-break opportunities. This is a huge total but I still love the Over and we could see both teams get to 80 points.

My best bet: Over 158 (-110 at Caesars)

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An Analysis of Spread in Missouri and Alabama

Missouri is one of the worst rebounding teams in the country and will be going up against one of the best. The Tigers are 353rd in rebounding at 30.5 possessions per game and 333rd in rebounding at 37.3 per contest. They also rank 359th in offensive rebounds allowed at 12.9 per contest.

Mizzou was outrebounded 33-28 by Tennessee and allowed nine offensive boards in their regular season meeting. Meanwhile, Alabama is first in the nation with 44.3 rebounds per game and 19th in the nation with 12.6 offensive rebounds per contest.

Tigers are 5-0 ATS in their last five neutral site games. The Crimson Tide are 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight neutral site games and 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a straight up win. These trends are interesting, because I think this game will be close.

Even with the bounce, Missouri showed they can still beat tough teams when they beat Tennessee on Friday. Mizzou can still easily cover this huge margin if they stay close to their season averages. I think the Tigers keep the game within single digits.

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Missouri vs. Alabama More/Less analysis

The previous match was a very good under total of 162.5 with only 149 total points. But we already mentioned how badly they shot the ball in that game. However, there are still almost 150 total points left.

The over is 8-1 in Tigers last nine games on a neutral site and 14-5 in their last 19 games following an ATS win. Over is 9-2 in Crimson Tide’s last 11 neutral site games. Both teams showed they can shoot well in this neutral venue in Nashville on Friday.

There will be a lot of possessions and Alabama will also get a lot of second chance opportunities. Missouri will also do its best to get fast breaks with its many shooting opportunities. I love Over here.

Need to know Missouri vs. Alabama betting trend

Crimson Tide are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win. Find more college basketball betting trends for Missouri vs. Alabama.

Information on the Missouri vs. Alabama game

Conference: SEC Semifinals
Place: Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Date: Saturday, March 11, 2023
Inform: 1 p.m. ET
TV: SEC Network

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